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Release time:
2021-02-02 09:46
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According to the U.S. government forecast released on Monday, thanks to the introduction of the new crown vaccine and a series of legislation in 2020, U.S. economic growth will "quickly" resume, and the labor market will return to full growth faster than expected.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) expects U.S. GDP to return to pre-epidemic size by mid -2021, and the labor force is expected to rebound to pre-epidemic levels by 2022.
The CBO said its latest projections were based on existing laws passed as of January 12 and did not include any executive action or stimulus package from the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden.
The CBO's estimates for the U.S. economy are as follows:
Real GDP growth of 3.7 per cent in 2021;
GDP growth will average 2.6 percent over the next five years;
The unemployment rate will fall to 5.3 per cent in 2021 and further to 4 per cent between 2024 and 2025;
Inflation will rise to 2 per cent after 2023;
The Federal Reserve will start raising the federal funds rate in mid -2024;
Upgraded economic outlook to 2025.
These forecasts are stronger than the CBO's forecasts last summer, when it said it expected the new crown epidemic to cut economic activity by about $7.9 trillion over the next decade.
The CBO said it raised its estimate, "because the recession was not as severe as expected, the first phase of the recovery occurred faster and stronger than expected." Businesses have proved better able to adapt to government-imposed restrictions, but certain industries, such as hotels and catering services, are still struggling with the epidemic.
The CBO expects the economy's rapid expansion to slow over the next five years as prices rise and long-term consumer spending levels become more normal.
Between 2026 and 2031, the CBO expects real GDP to grow by about 1.6 percent a year, while the Fed allows inflation to exceed its 2 percent target.
The CBO also provided an analysis of the $900 billion stimulus package passed by Congress in December. CBO estimates that the outbreak-related provisions in the legislation will increase the deficit by $774 billion in FY️ 2021 and $98 billion by 2022.
The CBO estimates that these provisions will boost real GDP by an average of 1.5 percent in fiscal years 2021 and 2022. (Sina Finance)
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The company was founded in 1997, currently 4000 a variety of models of automobile brake discs. Products are mainly exported to Europe, North America, South America, Australia and other countries and regions. At present to SAIC, JAC, BYD, Jinlong, Yutong and other domestic models to provide supporting. The company's process equipment strength, Japan's new east automatic casting line 6, commercial vehicle brake disc automatic casting line 2. There are 56 processing lines -6 full-automatic one-word processing lines and 30 robot processing lines. Packaging cleaning line 5, spraying line 3.
Since the beginning of this year, the price of raw materials has risen sharply, sea freight has soared, and the difficulty of finding a box of shipping space has seriously plagued manufacturing companies. The current power curtailment has made companies even worse. Take our company as an example. Since the power limit in early September, the company's production capacity has dropped by about 50% on average every day. Exports have decreased by 0.02 billion yuan. The performance rate of orders in hand is about 50%. New orders were reduced by 10%. These data are the impact of the current power rationing on enterprises. If the power rationing situation is not alleviated, the impact on enterprises in the fourth quarter will be more serious.
Recently, Yunnan, Jiangsu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Guangxi, Guangdong, Sichuan, Henan, Chongqing, Inner Mongolia, Henan and other places have begun to carry out energy control measures to limit energy consumption.
The total power generation in 021 is not low. In the first half of the year, China's total power generation was 3871.7 billion kWh, twice that of the United States. At the same time, China's foreign trade has grown extremely fast this year. According to data recently released by the General Administration of Customs, in August, the total value of my country's foreign trade imports and exports was 3.43 trillion billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9 percent, achieving positive year-on-year growth for 15 consecutive months, further showing a steady and solid trend. In the first eight months, the total value of China's foreign trade imports and exports was 24.78 trillion billion yuan, up 23.7 percent year-on-year and 22.8 percent over the same period in 2019.
The impact of the neo-coronary pneumonia epidemic on global supply chains continues, with high international freight rates, container shortages and terminal congestion still unabated, and labor shortages exacerbating the dilemma. The outbreak of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic in 2020, due to the obstruction of international freight, soaring transportation costs, international trade in goods greatly hindered, triggering a supply chain crisis in many countries (regions), since 2021, the new coronary pneumonia virus variant strain raging, so that the supply chain has not yet fully recovered.
Statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers show that in the first seven months of 2021, China's cumulative automobile exports reached 1.002 million, an increase of 1.2 times year-on-year, but the month-on-month growth was only 9.8 percent, showing a shrinking trend. Moreover, commercial vehicle exports fell 11.6 percent month-on-month, of which new energy commercial vehicle exports fell 57.8 percent month-on-month. It is said that the main reason for the decline in automobile exports is the poor shipping channels.
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At present, 4000 a variety of models of automobile brake discs, brake drums with an annual output of 10 million pieces. Products are mainly exported to Europe, North America, South America, Australia and other countries and regions. At present to SAIC, JAC, BYD, Jinlong, Yutong and other domestic models to provide supporting.
At present, 4000 a variety of models of automobile brake discs. Products are mainly exported to Europe, North America, South America, Australia and other countries and regions. At present to SAIC, JAC, BYD, Jinlong, Yutong and other domestic models to provide supporting.
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