Trade Risk Alert
Release time:
2021-01-27 13:15
Source:
On January 25, the United Nations released its latest flagship report, World Economic Situation and Prospects. The report predicts that the global economic recovery remains unstable. The global economy will rebound by 4.7 per cent in 2021, but that growth will only barely offset the losses in 2020.
The report warns that without increased investment in the economic, social and other sectors, the devastating effects of the neo-coronary pneumonia epidemic will last for years and, in turn, affect the global ability to respond to climate change and achieve economic recovery.
The report emphasizes that eliminating economic bubbles and increasing inequality is essential to ensure the resilience of the global recovery, and policy measures should be taken to stimulate investment, revitalize global trade and prevent premature tightening.
The report said that the global economy will decline by 4.3 in 2020, more than 2.5 times the decline during the global financial crisis in 2009. Global trade contracted by 7.6 per cent against the backdrop of massive disruptions to global supply chains and tourism as a result of the outbreak. In addition, ongoing trade tensions between major economies and the stalemate in multilateral trade negotiations had limited global trade before the epidemic. Developed economies have contracted more than developing economies, by 5.6 per cent, and are expected to achieve 4 per cent output growth in 2021. The economies of developing countries contracted relatively slightly, by 2.5 per cent, and are expected to rebound by 5.6 per cent in 2021.
In 2020, 0.131 billion people will be living in poverty, most of them women, children and people from marginalized communities. The adverse impact of the epidemic on women and girls is particularly severe. Women account for more than 50 per cent of the workforce in high-risk labor and service-intensive sectors, such as retail and tourism, which have been most affected by the epidemic.
With the outbreak continuing, global recovery depends not only on the scale of economic stimulus measures and the speed at which vaccines are rolled out, but also on the quality and effectiveness of these measures.
The report notes that countries took massive economic stimulus measures during the epidemic, with a total investment of $12.7 trillion billion, preventing a total economic collapse and averting a Great Depression. However, there are clear differences in the size of economic stimulus packages between developed and developing countries, leading them to different recovery tracks. The per capita stimulus spending of developed countries is nearly 580 times higher than that of the least developed countries, while the per capita income of developed countries is only 30 times higher than that of the least developed countries.
In addition, financing these stimulus packages required significantly higher-than-usual borrowing, resulting in a 15 per cent increase in global public debt. If a significant portion of public debt is not used for productive and sustainable investment and to stimulate growth, a significant increase in debt will place a heavy burden on future generations.
The report also highlights opportunities for developing countries. If developing countries can prioritize investments that promote human development, embrace innovation and technology, strengthen infrastructure, and create resilient supply chains, it will help create new development opportunities.
The report also focuses on stimulating investment. The report argues that while most stimulus spending has both protected employment and supported consumption, it has also contributed to asset price bubbles around the world.
UN economic affairs officials and experts pointed out that the epidemic crisis foreshadows that the global recovery will be a long and painful process. With the introduction of the new crown vaccine, the recovery will be stepped up in the future. Specifically, it is necessary to implement more resilient long-term investment, avoid premature austerity, re-plan debt sustainability, implement universal social protection plans, accelerate the transition to a green economy, promote the recovery and growth of international trade, and focus on addressing poverty And income and wealth inequality, promote inclusive and equitable growth, enhance environmental sustainability, and achieve sustainable development goals.
As UN Secretary-General Guterres said at the "Davos Agenda" dialogue on January 25, the world is facing the worst health and economic crisis in 90 years. "We must remember that the choices we make now will determine our common future. Building an inclusive and sustainable future requires wise policies, impactful investments and socio-economic measures with a people-centred philosophy at its core, as well as a strong and effective multilateral system."
UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs Liu Zhenmin said that the current crisis has once again demonstrated the importance of revitalizing the rules-based multilateral trading system, which will help the world economy embark on a strong and resilient recovery track. All parties must work together to make global trade resilient to shocks in order to ensure that trade remains the engine of growth for developing countries. (Economic Daily)
Interactive Message
If you are interested in our products, please leave your email and we will contact you as soon as possible. Thank you very much.
Other dynamics
The company was founded in 1997, currently 4000 a variety of models of automobile brake discs. Products are mainly exported to Europe, North America, South America, Australia and other countries and regions. At present to SAIC, JAC, BYD, Jinlong, Yutong and other domestic models to provide supporting. The company's process equipment strength, Japan's new east automatic casting line 6, commercial vehicle brake disc automatic casting line 2. There are 56 processing lines -6 full-automatic one-word processing lines and 30 robot processing lines. Packaging cleaning line 5, spraying line 3.
Since the beginning of this year, the price of raw materials has risen sharply, sea freight has soared, and the difficulty of finding a box of shipping space has seriously plagued manufacturing companies. The current power curtailment has made companies even worse. Take our company as an example. Since the power limit in early September, the company's production capacity has dropped by about 50% on average every day. Exports have decreased by 0.02 billion yuan. The performance rate of orders in hand is about 50%. New orders were reduced by 10%. These data are the impact of the current power rationing on enterprises. If the power rationing situation is not alleviated, the impact on enterprises in the fourth quarter will be more serious.
Recently, Yunnan, Jiangsu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Guangxi, Guangdong, Sichuan, Henan, Chongqing, Inner Mongolia, Henan and other places have begun to carry out energy control measures to limit energy consumption.
The total power generation in 021 is not low. In the first half of the year, China's total power generation was 3871.7 billion kWh, twice that of the United States. At the same time, China's foreign trade has grown extremely fast this year. According to data recently released by the General Administration of Customs, in August, the total value of my country's foreign trade imports and exports was 3.43 trillion billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9 percent, achieving positive year-on-year growth for 15 consecutive months, further showing a steady and solid trend. In the first eight months, the total value of China's foreign trade imports and exports was 24.78 trillion billion yuan, up 23.7 percent year-on-year and 22.8 percent over the same period in 2019.
The impact of the neo-coronary pneumonia epidemic on global supply chains continues, with high international freight rates, container shortages and terminal congestion still unabated, and labor shortages exacerbating the dilemma. The outbreak of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic in 2020, due to the obstruction of international freight, soaring transportation costs, international trade in goods greatly hindered, triggering a supply chain crisis in many countries (regions), since 2021, the new coronary pneumonia virus variant strain raging, so that the supply chain has not yet fully recovered.
Statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers show that in the first seven months of 2021, China's cumulative automobile exports reached 1.002 million, an increase of 1.2 times year-on-year, but the month-on-month growth was only 9.8 percent, showing a shrinking trend. Moreover, commercial vehicle exports fell 11.6 percent month-on-month, of which new energy commercial vehicle exports fell 57.8 percent month-on-month. It is said that the main reason for the decline in automobile exports is the poor shipping channels.
Product recommend
At present, 4000 a variety of models of automobile brake discs, brake drums with an annual output of 10 million pieces. Products are mainly exported to Europe, North America, South America, Australia and other countries and regions. At present to SAIC, JAC, BYD, Jinlong, Yutong and other domestic models to provide supporting.
At present, 4000 a variety of models of automobile brake discs. Products are mainly exported to Europe, North America, South America, Australia and other countries and regions. At present to SAIC, JAC, BYD, Jinlong, Yutong and other domestic models to provide supporting.
Address: Zhuqiao Town, Laizhou City, Shandong Province
Mobile phone official website