Trade warning
Release time:
2020-12-29 09:41
Source:
In 2020, the world is lurching forward in the storm of the new crown epidemic. Looking forward to 2021, what will the international situation look like?
Global epidemic: cloudy in the underworld
According to statistics released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of December 26, the world's cumulative number of new crown confirmed cases has exceeded 80 million. In the new year, with the development of vaccination and drug therapy, the "cloud" of the global epidemic is expected to be reduced.
Recently, some countries have started vaccination. Brazil and Turkey announced the results of clinical trials of Chinese vaccines, confirming their effectiveness. At the same time, the discovery of multiple mutated new coronavirus in the UK, South Africa and Nigeria has raised some concerns.
Although many people expect vaccines to be the "ultimate weapon" in the fight against the new coronavirus, it is still unknown whether the new coronavirus epidemic will be effectively controlled in 2021, given uncertainties such as vaccination rates, the duration of antibody protection, and the new situation of virus mutation. As the Director-General of the World Health Organization, Tan Desai, said, progress in vaccine development has made people begin to see the "light at the end of the tunnel", but there is still a long way to go to end the neo-crown pandemic.
U.S. Political Situation: Storm Hard to Stop
After experiencing the ups and downs of this year's presidential election, US President-elect Biden is expected to be sworn in on January 20 next year. In front of him will be a problem-ridden and socially torn America. The worsening epidemic, the economic downturn, the high debt, coupled with the intensification of the conflict between the democratic and Republican parties, the new year, the U.S. political arena is difficult to stop the storm, the struggle is difficult to stop.
As the most severely affected country in the world, the United States has accumulated more than 330000 new crown deaths, the national health system is under pressure, and a number of U.S. health experts warned the public that the "most difficult time" is far from over. Under the impact of the epidemic, the unemployment rate is high, and the party struggle makes the relevant measures often can not be introduced in time, the U.S. economy is facing the risk of falling into a "double-dip recession. How to effectively control the epidemic and alleviate the economic dilemma is the first problem to be solved by the new government.
In addition, in the United States, where political and social polarization is intensifying, bridging the differences between different parties, classes, and races and changing the split of the "two Americas" is also a major challenge facing Biden.
Russia-West relations: Severe cold continues
Since the Ukraine crisis, Russia's relations with the West have hovered at a freezing point. Considering that Biden has publicly declared that Russia is the "biggest threat" to US security, in the new year, it is expected that Russia's relations with the United States and other Western countries will remain in a severe cold.
Public opinion generally predicts that after Biden takes office, he will take a tougher stance against Russia and continue to confront Russia on issues such as human rights, Ukraine, and Belarus, further squeezing Russia's global influence. However, the Biden administration will pay more attention to maintaining strategic stability between the United States and Russia. Biden's diplomatic team has clearly expressed its support for the extension of the new strategic arms reduction treaty, which will expire in February next year.
At the same time, the EU will continue to maintain a "selective engagement" policy with Russia. On the one hand, the sanctions imposed by the European Union on Russia on the grounds of cyber attacks and the "poisoning" of Russian opposition figures will continue; on the other hand, Russia's "Beixi-2" natural gas pipeline project to Germany will continue despite the opposition of the United States. Go ahead. In addition, there is also room for cooperation between Russia and Europe on issues such as Syria, Libya and Iran.
MIDDLE EAST CHANGE: THUNDER ROLL
In 2020, an Iranian general and a nuclear scientist were assassinated one after another, Arab countries such as the United Arab Emirates established diplomatic relations with Israel, Turkey intervened in the conflicts between Libya and Naka, and relations with Greece and Egypt deteriorated due to the Eastern Mediterranean issue. These events reflect the general trend of continued turmoil in the Middle East and indicate that the Middle East will remain thunderous and perilous in 2021.
The United States and Russia are important external factors in the changing situation in the Middle East. The Biden administration may step up efforts to curb Russian influence in the region. Russia will continue to wrestle with the United States and Turkey on the Syrian issue to consolidate its military presence on the east coast of the Mediterranean.
The fierce game of regional powers is bringing more and more uncertainty. Iran is looking forward to the return of the United States to the Iran nuclear agreement, but the process is difficult to smooth. Israel may establish diplomatic relations with more Arab countries, so that Iran's security pressure continues to increase. Turkey's intention to compete for regional dominance is becoming increasingly obvious. Whether this four-sided strategy will trigger more intense regional conflicts is worthy of attention.
Britain's "Brexit": the wind is not reduced
After nine months of difficult negotiations, the United Kingdom and the European Union finally reached an agreement on the future relationship between the two sides on December 24. The haze of "no-deal Brexit" that has shrouded Britain for many years since the 2016 "Brexit" referendum has finally been blown away, but Britain still faces strong winds in politics and economy in the future.
First of all, most people in Scotland in the north of the United Kingdom originally opposed "Brexit", and some of the contents of the Anglo-European agreement involving agriculture and fisheries made them even more dissatisfied. Due to complex historical, economic and other reasons, Scotland has long sought to "leave the UK", and the breakup of the UK and the EU will further intensify this independence sentiment. Secondly, the UK is currently the world's largest net exporter of financial services, with more than 40% of its exports to the EU, while the UK-EU agreement involves little in the financial services industry, which may have an impact on the UK financial industry. In addition, after the completion of Brexit, it is also a difficult problem for Britain to maintain political stability, economic prosperity and international influence, and then realize the idea of a "global Britain. (Xinhua)
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The company was founded in 1997, currently 4000 a variety of models of automobile brake discs. Products are mainly exported to Europe, North America, South America, Australia and other countries and regions. At present to SAIC, JAC, BYD, Jinlong, Yutong and other domestic models to provide supporting. The company's process equipment strength, Japan's new east automatic casting line 6, commercial vehicle brake disc automatic casting line 2. There are 56 processing lines -6 full-automatic one-word processing lines and 30 robot processing lines. Packaging cleaning line 5, spraying line 3.
Since the beginning of this year, the price of raw materials has risen sharply, sea freight has soared, and the difficulty of finding a box of shipping space has seriously plagued manufacturing companies. The current power curtailment has made companies even worse. Take our company as an example. Since the power limit in early September, the company's production capacity has dropped by about 50% on average every day. Exports have decreased by 0.02 billion yuan. The performance rate of orders in hand is about 50%. New orders were reduced by 10%. These data are the impact of the current power rationing on enterprises. If the power rationing situation is not alleviated, the impact on enterprises in the fourth quarter will be more serious.
Recently, Yunnan, Jiangsu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Guangxi, Guangdong, Sichuan, Henan, Chongqing, Inner Mongolia, Henan and other places have begun to carry out energy control measures to limit energy consumption.
The total power generation in 021 is not low. In the first half of the year, China's total power generation was 3871.7 billion kWh, twice that of the United States. At the same time, China's foreign trade has grown extremely fast this year. According to data recently released by the General Administration of Customs, in August, the total value of my country's foreign trade imports and exports was 3.43 trillion billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9 percent, achieving positive year-on-year growth for 15 consecutive months, further showing a steady and solid trend. In the first eight months, the total value of China's foreign trade imports and exports was 24.78 trillion billion yuan, up 23.7 percent year-on-year and 22.8 percent over the same period in 2019.
The impact of the neo-coronary pneumonia epidemic on global supply chains continues, with high international freight rates, container shortages and terminal congestion still unabated, and labor shortages exacerbating the dilemma. The outbreak of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic in 2020, due to the obstruction of international freight, soaring transportation costs, international trade in goods greatly hindered, triggering a supply chain crisis in many countries (regions), since 2021, the new coronary pneumonia virus variant strain raging, so that the supply chain has not yet fully recovered.
Statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers show that in the first seven months of 2021, China's cumulative automobile exports reached 1.002 million, an increase of 1.2 times year-on-year, but the month-on-month growth was only 9.8 percent, showing a shrinking trend. Moreover, commercial vehicle exports fell 11.6 percent month-on-month, of which new energy commercial vehicle exports fell 57.8 percent month-on-month. It is said that the main reason for the decline in automobile exports is the poor shipping channels.
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At present, 4000 a variety of models of automobile brake discs, brake drums with an annual output of 10 million pieces. Products are mainly exported to Europe, North America, South America, Australia and other countries and regions. At present to SAIC, JAC, BYD, Jinlong, Yutong and other domestic models to provide supporting.
At present, 4000 a variety of models of automobile brake discs. Products are mainly exported to Europe, North America, South America, Australia and other countries and regions. At present to SAIC, JAC, BYD, Jinlong, Yutong and other domestic models to provide supporting.
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