Trade Risk Alert
Release time:
2020-12-18 11:21
Source:
Since the end of May this year, the exchange rate of RMB (6.5372, 0.0036, 0.06) has seen a wave of relatively high appreciation. According to data from the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, on December 17, the central parity of the renminbi against the US dollar was reported at 6.5362 yuan, an appreciation of more than 8.4 percent from the lowest 7.1316 in May (May 29). The onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has also continued to rise since the low of May. According to Wind data, the onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar hit the highest 6.5198 of the year on December 9. If calculated according to the lowest point 7.1765 of this year (May 27), the maximum appreciation rate of RMB has reached 9.15 so far this year.
Regarding the reasons for the continued strength of the renminbi since the second half of the year, Wang Lijuan, deputy director of the Research Department of the Bank of China (Hong Kong Stock 03988) Industry Association, said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily that there are three main factors. First, the continuous recovery of the domestic economy has strengthened the renminbi. Provided support. The second is the divergence in monetary policy between the US and China, with the US-China interest rate differential now at relatively high levels, enhancing the attractiveness of RMB assets. Finally, as the vaccine continues to break through, the dollar's safe-haven function is declining and the dollar index (89.8900, 0.1200, 0.13 per cent) has fallen.
It is worth mentioning that, in order to further improve the macro-prudential management of full-caliber cross-border financing and guide financial institutions to market-oriented adjustment of the structure of foreign exchange assets and liabilities, the central bank and the foreign exchange bureau decided to lower the macro-prudential adjustment parameters of cross-border financing for financial institutions from 1.25 to 1. The central bank said that financial institutions should establish a "risk-neutral" concept to better serve economic and social development. (Securities Daily)
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The company was founded in 1997, currently 4000 a variety of models of automobile brake discs. Products are mainly exported to Europe, North America, South America, Australia and other countries and regions. At present to SAIC, JAC, BYD, Jinlong, Yutong and other domestic models to provide supporting. The company's process equipment strength, Japan's new east automatic casting line 6, commercial vehicle brake disc automatic casting line 2. There are 56 processing lines -6 full-automatic one-word processing lines and 30 robot processing lines. Packaging cleaning line 5, spraying line 3.
Since the beginning of this year, the price of raw materials has risen sharply, sea freight has soared, and the difficulty of finding a box of shipping space has seriously plagued manufacturing companies. The current power curtailment has made companies even worse. Take our company as an example. Since the power limit in early September, the company's production capacity has dropped by about 50% on average every day. Exports have decreased by 0.02 billion yuan. The performance rate of orders in hand is about 50%. New orders were reduced by 10%. These data are the impact of the current power rationing on enterprises. If the power rationing situation is not alleviated, the impact on enterprises in the fourth quarter will be more serious.
Recently, Yunnan, Jiangsu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Guangxi, Guangdong, Sichuan, Henan, Chongqing, Inner Mongolia, Henan and other places have begun to carry out energy control measures to limit energy consumption.
The total power generation in 021 is not low. In the first half of the year, China's total power generation was 3871.7 billion kWh, twice that of the United States. At the same time, China's foreign trade has grown extremely fast this year. According to data recently released by the General Administration of Customs, in August, the total value of my country's foreign trade imports and exports was 3.43 trillion billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9 percent, achieving positive year-on-year growth for 15 consecutive months, further showing a steady and solid trend. In the first eight months, the total value of China's foreign trade imports and exports was 24.78 trillion billion yuan, up 23.7 percent year-on-year and 22.8 percent over the same period in 2019.
The impact of the neo-coronary pneumonia epidemic on global supply chains continues, with high international freight rates, container shortages and terminal congestion still unabated, and labor shortages exacerbating the dilemma. The outbreak of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic in 2020, due to the obstruction of international freight, soaring transportation costs, international trade in goods greatly hindered, triggering a supply chain crisis in many countries (regions), since 2021, the new coronary pneumonia virus variant strain raging, so that the supply chain has not yet fully recovered.
Statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers show that in the first seven months of 2021, China's cumulative automobile exports reached 1.002 million, an increase of 1.2 times year-on-year, but the month-on-month growth was only 9.8 percent, showing a shrinking trend. Moreover, commercial vehicle exports fell 11.6 percent month-on-month, of which new energy commercial vehicle exports fell 57.8 percent month-on-month. It is said that the main reason for the decline in automobile exports is the poor shipping channels.
Product recommend
At present, 4000 a variety of models of automobile brake discs, brake drums with an annual output of 10 million pieces. Products are mainly exported to Europe, North America, South America, Australia and other countries and regions. At present to SAIC, JAC, BYD, Jinlong, Yutong and other domestic models to provide supporting.
At present, 4000 a variety of models of automobile brake discs. Products are mainly exported to Europe, North America, South America, Australia and other countries and regions. At present to SAIC, JAC, BYD, Jinlong, Yutong and other domestic models to provide supporting.
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