Trade Risk Alert
Release time:
2020-12-17 15:20
Source:
On December 16, the spot exchange rate of the onshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 16:30 at 6.5378 yuan, an increase of 68 basis points from the previous closing price. On the 15th, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar fell sharply in intraday trading, with the lowest onshore RMB falling below 6.55, with the largest drop of nearly 200 basis points in the day.
Since last week, the RMB exchange rate has come out of a volatile pattern. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar hit a new high of nearly two and a half years on December 9, but fell by more than 100 basis points on December 10. Analysts said that the recent factors affecting the RMB exchange rate are intertwined, especially the uncertainty of the US fiscal stimulus and Brexit, and the foreign exchange market has entered a period of consolidation.
The recent actions of the central bank have also affected the trend of the RMB exchange rate. On the 15th, the central bank launched a 950 billion yuan medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation, a record high in single-day MLF operations. Market participants said that the central bank's excessive amount of money, prompting the price of funds to fall, the exchange rate also has a downward traction.
On the 11th, the central bank and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange announced that they had decided to lower the macro-prudential adjustment parameters for cross-border financing of financial institutions from 1.25 to 1. Industry insiders believe that one consideration for this may be to prevent the risk of procyclical fluctuations caused by rapid capital inflows and rapid accumulation of foreign debt in the context of continued exchange rate appreciation.
It is worth noting that the recent RMB exchange rate against the US dollar and the trend of the US dollar have deviated. Since December 9, the RMB exchange rate has remained volatile, while the US dollar index (90.0400, -0.1800, -0.20) has weakened unilaterally over the same period. Analysts said that since the third quarter, the RMB exchange rate has been less affected by the US dollar and more affected by fundamentals. (Sina Finance)
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The company was founded in 1997, currently 4000 a variety of models of automobile brake discs. Products are mainly exported to Europe, North America, South America, Australia and other countries and regions. At present to SAIC, JAC, BYD, Jinlong, Yutong and other domestic models to provide supporting. The company's process equipment strength, Japan's new east automatic casting line 6, commercial vehicle brake disc automatic casting line 2. There are 56 processing lines -6 full-automatic one-word processing lines and 30 robot processing lines. Packaging cleaning line 5, spraying line 3.
Since the beginning of this year, the price of raw materials has risen sharply, sea freight has soared, and the difficulty of finding a box of shipping space has seriously plagued manufacturing companies. The current power curtailment has made companies even worse. Take our company as an example. Since the power limit in early September, the company's production capacity has dropped by about 50% on average every day. Exports have decreased by 0.02 billion yuan. The performance rate of orders in hand is about 50%. New orders were reduced by 10%. These data are the impact of the current power rationing on enterprises. If the power rationing situation is not alleviated, the impact on enterprises in the fourth quarter will be more serious.
Recently, Yunnan, Jiangsu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Guangxi, Guangdong, Sichuan, Henan, Chongqing, Inner Mongolia, Henan and other places have begun to carry out energy control measures to limit energy consumption.
The total power generation in 021 is not low. In the first half of the year, China's total power generation was 3871.7 billion kWh, twice that of the United States. At the same time, China's foreign trade has grown extremely fast this year. According to data recently released by the General Administration of Customs, in August, the total value of my country's foreign trade imports and exports was 3.43 trillion billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9 percent, achieving positive year-on-year growth for 15 consecutive months, further showing a steady and solid trend. In the first eight months, the total value of China's foreign trade imports and exports was 24.78 trillion billion yuan, up 23.7 percent year-on-year and 22.8 percent over the same period in 2019.
The impact of the neo-coronary pneumonia epidemic on global supply chains continues, with high international freight rates, container shortages and terminal congestion still unabated, and labor shortages exacerbating the dilemma. The outbreak of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic in 2020, due to the obstruction of international freight, soaring transportation costs, international trade in goods greatly hindered, triggering a supply chain crisis in many countries (regions), since 2021, the new coronary pneumonia virus variant strain raging, so that the supply chain has not yet fully recovered.
Statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers show that in the first seven months of 2021, China's cumulative automobile exports reached 1.002 million, an increase of 1.2 times year-on-year, but the month-on-month growth was only 9.8 percent, showing a shrinking trend. Moreover, commercial vehicle exports fell 11.6 percent month-on-month, of which new energy commercial vehicle exports fell 57.8 percent month-on-month. It is said that the main reason for the decline in automobile exports is the poor shipping channels.
Product recommend
At present, 4000 a variety of models of automobile brake discs, brake drums with an annual output of 10 million pieces. Products are mainly exported to Europe, North America, South America, Australia and other countries and regions. At present to SAIC, JAC, BYD, Jinlong, Yutong and other domestic models to provide supporting.
At present, 4000 a variety of models of automobile brake discs. Products are mainly exported to Europe, North America, South America, Australia and other countries and regions. At present to SAIC, JAC, BYD, Jinlong, Yutong and other domestic models to provide supporting.
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