April 29 Trade Risk Alert
Release time:
2020-04-29 10:14
Source:
The U.S. Department of Commerce has tightened export control restrictions.On April 27, the US government announced that it would impose new restrictions on the export of civil aircraft parts and semiconductor production equipment to China. The new rules require U.S. companies to be licensed to sell certain products to Chinese companies that support the military, even if the products are for civilian use. The regulations also repeal the exception clause for the unauthorized export of certain U.S. technologies and products. The above-mentioned provisions remove the civil licensing exceptions for Chinese importers and Chinese nationals, as well as other countries including Ukraine and Russia, for integrated circuits, telecommunications equipment, radars, high-end computers and other items. The administration also issued a third proposed rule change that would require foreign companies to seek approval not only from their own governments but also from the United States when shipping specific U.S. goods to China. (Network of Observers)
The U.S. food supply chain is breaking under the outbreak.According to the British "Guardian" reported on April 27, one of the largest meat producers in the United States Tyson Foods warned that during the new crown epidemic, "the food supply chain is breaking down, product supply will be restricted". Tyson Foods has closed several factories across the United States, and several others have cut production. (World Wide Web)
2020In April 2010, the French household confidence index fell the most in a single month since 1972.The Echo reported on April 28 that according to a statistical report released by the French National Institute of Statistics and Economics (Insee), the French household confidence index fell to 95 in April this year, a year-on-year decrease of 8 points, the largest single month since 1972. decline. This index is back to the level of February 2019, when the French "yellow vest" movement severely affected French household consumption morale. (Ministry of Commerce website)
Hungary's fiscal deficit rose sharply in the first quarter.On April 24, the Hungarian Ministry of Finance said that the government's most important task was to deal with the impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic. In response to the negative economic impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic and implementing fiscal measures, the government revised its 2020 budget deficit target from 1 percent of GDP to 2.7 percent, from 367 billion forint (about $1.12 billion) to 1601 billion forint (about $4.87 billion). The deficit increased to 831.9 billion forint (about $2.53 billion) by the end of March, accounting for 226.7 percent of the original planned annual deficit of 367 billion forint and 52 percent of the revised full-year planned deficit. (Ministry of Commerce website)
S. tea exports have been hit hard by the new coronary pneumonia epidemic.Sri Lanka's tea exports hit their lowest ever shipments in March and their value fell sharply due to trade disruptions caused by epidemic prevention and control measures, the Daily Finance reported on 27 March. According to industry sources, the export volume of tea in March was only 13.8 million kg, the lowest ever, down 47.7 per cent (12.6 million kg) from a year earlier, and the export volume was only 11.5 billion rupees, down 48 per cent (10.9 billion rupees) from a year earlier. The FOB price in March 2020 was Rs 836.74 per kg, down Rs 13.74 YoY. Iraq, Turkey and Russia are the top three importers of tea, followed by Iran, and Azerbaijan, Chile, Saudi Arabia, China and Syria are other noteworthy importers. (Ministry of Commerce website)
The number of bankrupt enterprises in Japan due to the epidemic has reached 100.People's Daily Online, Tokyo, April 28 (Zheng Jin) According to NHK TV, the survey data released by the Japanese Private Credit Investigation Company on the 27th showed that 100 companies across Japan have declared bankruptcy due to the impact of new coronary pneumonia. (Ministry of Commerce website)
Affected by the epidemic Large Japanese companies cut their 2019 earnings estimates.People's Daily Online, Tokyo, April 28. Japan's Matsushita Electric on the 27th lowered its 2019 annual (April 1, 2019 to March 31, 2020) earnings forecast revenue. Due to the impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, Matsushita Electric's 2019 annual estimated revenue of 74,500 billion yen (about 491.8 billion yuan), compared with the estimated revenue data released in February this year, a decrease of 250 billion yen (about 16.5 billion yuan), down 3.2 percent. In addition, Mitsukhi Isetan Holdings also announced revised revenue estimates for 2019. Due to the impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, a loss of 11 billion yen (about 0.73 billion yuan) is expected. (Ministry of Commerce website)
Indian institutions forecast India's economy to grow by 1.9 in the 2020-21 fiscal year.India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) released a research report on the 27th that India's economic growth forecast for the 2020-21 fiscal year is around 1.9 percent. According to Indian media reports, the agency's forecast for this in March was 3.6 percent. India's rating and Research (Ind-Ra) said that if India's big blockade policy can end in mid-May, India's economic growth rate in 2020-21 fiscal year may be around 1.9, but if this policy cannot end in mid-May and is further extended, India's economic growth rate may drop to negative 2.1. (China Financial Information Network)
The New Zealand Fed may add negative interest rates to its policy tools.Even if the New Zealand Fed said last month that the official cash rate (OCR) would remain at 0.25 per cent for the next year, we expect the New Zealand Fed to cut the official cash rate (OCR) to negative in November. A significant recession due to the pandemic will require massive fiscal and monetary policy, so we expect the New Zealand Fed to cut interest rates by 75 basis points to -0.5 per cent. A negative official cash rate (OCR) would allow banks to increase lending, but mortgage and deposit rates should remain above zero. (countryInternational Derivatives Think Tank)
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The company was founded in 1997, currently 4000 a variety of models of automobile brake discs. Products are mainly exported to Europe, North America, South America, Australia and other countries and regions. At present to SAIC, JAC, BYD, Jinlong, Yutong and other domestic models to provide supporting. The company's process equipment strength, Japan's new east automatic casting line 6, commercial vehicle brake disc automatic casting line 2. There are 56 processing lines -6 full-automatic one-word processing lines and 30 robot processing lines. Packaging cleaning line 5, spraying line 3.
Since the beginning of this year, the price of raw materials has risen sharply, sea freight has soared, and the difficulty of finding a box of shipping space has seriously plagued manufacturing companies. The current power curtailment has made companies even worse. Take our company as an example. Since the power limit in early September, the company's production capacity has dropped by about 50% on average every day. Exports have decreased by 0.02 billion yuan. The performance rate of orders in hand is about 50%. New orders were reduced by 10%. These data are the impact of the current power rationing on enterprises. If the power rationing situation is not alleviated, the impact on enterprises in the fourth quarter will be more serious.
Recently, Yunnan, Jiangsu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Guangxi, Guangdong, Sichuan, Henan, Chongqing, Inner Mongolia, Henan and other places have begun to carry out energy control measures to limit energy consumption.
The total power generation in 021 is not low. In the first half of the year, China's total power generation was 3871.7 billion kWh, twice that of the United States. At the same time, China's foreign trade has grown extremely fast this year. According to data recently released by the General Administration of Customs, in August, the total value of my country's foreign trade imports and exports was 3.43 trillion billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9 percent, achieving positive year-on-year growth for 15 consecutive months, further showing a steady and solid trend. In the first eight months, the total value of China's foreign trade imports and exports was 24.78 trillion billion yuan, up 23.7 percent year-on-year and 22.8 percent over the same period in 2019.
The impact of the neo-coronary pneumonia epidemic on global supply chains continues, with high international freight rates, container shortages and terminal congestion still unabated, and labor shortages exacerbating the dilemma. The outbreak of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic in 2020, due to the obstruction of international freight, soaring transportation costs, international trade in goods greatly hindered, triggering a supply chain crisis in many countries (regions), since 2021, the new coronary pneumonia virus variant strain raging, so that the supply chain has not yet fully recovered.
Statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers show that in the first seven months of 2021, China's cumulative automobile exports reached 1.002 million, an increase of 1.2 times year-on-year, but the month-on-month growth was only 9.8 percent, showing a shrinking trend. Moreover, commercial vehicle exports fell 11.6 percent month-on-month, of which new energy commercial vehicle exports fell 57.8 percent month-on-month. It is said that the main reason for the decline in automobile exports is the poor shipping channels.
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At present, 4000 a variety of models of automobile brake discs, brake drums with an annual output of 10 million pieces. Products are mainly exported to Europe, North America, South America, Australia and other countries and regions. At present to SAIC, JAC, BYD, Jinlong, Yutong and other domestic models to provide supporting.
At present, 4000 a variety of models of automobile brake discs. Products are mainly exported to Europe, North America, South America, Australia and other countries and regions. At present to SAIC, JAC, BYD, Jinlong, Yutong and other domestic models to provide supporting.
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