Trade Tips
Release time:
2020-12-09 09:10
Source:
The world economy is undergoing major changes unseen in a century. China's economy has begun to enter the 14th Five-Year Plan period. A double-cycle development pattern is taking shape. Financial opening has entered deep water. The internationalization of RMB (6.5332, 0.0034, 0.05) is also facing new development opportunities.
At the Phoenix New Media Financial Summit, Sheng Songcheng, professor of China Europe International Business School and former director of the investigation and Statistics Department of the people's Bank of China, and Guan Tao, global chief economist of Bank of China Securities, conducted an online dialogue on issues of great concern such as RMB exchange rate and capital account opening.
Consensus: RMB does not exist "appreciation cycle"
Since the end of May this year, the renminbi has embarked on a path of volatility and rise. In the past half a month or so, it has basically hovered in a 6.5 range, and the offshore renminbi is only one step away from 6.4. If the book value is calculated on this basis, it will cost about 69000 yuan less to exchange $100000 now than it did six months ago.
The market has brought various explanations for the appreciation of the RMB: the recovery of economic fundamentals, the widening of the international balance of payments surplus, the global game situation, and the trend of the US dollar index (90.9053, 0.0403, 0.04 per cent). Some people say that the RMB exchange rate has entered an "appreciation cycle", while others say that the good is exhausted, the inflection point or the end. No one is sure to be absolutely right when it comes to predicting the market. However, in the context of the "appreciation cycle", academic circles have begun to discuss the impact on China's economy since October.
Sheng Songcheng and Guan Tao do not agree with the "appreciation cycle", both of them believe that the definition of economic cycle to define exchange rate performance, is inappropriate. However, in the long run, Guan Tao believes that there is no basis for a substantial depreciation of the RMB exchange rate; Sheng Songcheng judges that the RMB is an appreciation trend in the long term, even in the medium and long term.
Sheng Songcheng mentioned that the internationalization of the renminbi actually requires it to become a strong currency. But Guan Tao suggested that a strong currency does not mean an appreciation of the exchange rate.
The impact of the short-term appreciation trend of the RMB on the Chinese economy, both of them believe that there are disadvantages and advantages. Sheng Songcheng said that appreciation is not good for exports, but good for imports. This is the most superficial phenomenon, and there are deeper problems. Under the background of RMB appreciation, the contribution rate of net exports to GDP growth should be reduced. Guan Tao also said that from the perspective of the private sector, the appreciation of the renminbi will help reduce the burden of our external net debt. (Sina Finance)
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The company was founded in 1997, currently 4000 a variety of models of automobile brake discs. Products are mainly exported to Europe, North America, South America, Australia and other countries and regions. At present to SAIC, JAC, BYD, Jinlong, Yutong and other domestic models to provide supporting. The company's process equipment strength, Japan's new east automatic casting line 6, commercial vehicle brake disc automatic casting line 2. There are 56 processing lines -6 full-automatic one-word processing lines and 30 robot processing lines. Packaging cleaning line 5, spraying line 3.
Since the beginning of this year, the price of raw materials has risen sharply, sea freight has soared, and the difficulty of finding a box of shipping space has seriously plagued manufacturing companies. The current power curtailment has made companies even worse. Take our company as an example. Since the power limit in early September, the company's production capacity has dropped by about 50% on average every day. Exports have decreased by 0.02 billion yuan. The performance rate of orders in hand is about 50%. New orders were reduced by 10%. These data are the impact of the current power rationing on enterprises. If the power rationing situation is not alleviated, the impact on enterprises in the fourth quarter will be more serious.
Recently, Yunnan, Jiangsu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Guangxi, Guangdong, Sichuan, Henan, Chongqing, Inner Mongolia, Henan and other places have begun to carry out energy control measures to limit energy consumption.
The total power generation in 021 is not low. In the first half of the year, China's total power generation was 3871.7 billion kWh, twice that of the United States. At the same time, China's foreign trade has grown extremely fast this year. According to data recently released by the General Administration of Customs, in August, the total value of my country's foreign trade imports and exports was 3.43 trillion billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9 percent, achieving positive year-on-year growth for 15 consecutive months, further showing a steady and solid trend. In the first eight months, the total value of China's foreign trade imports and exports was 24.78 trillion billion yuan, up 23.7 percent year-on-year and 22.8 percent over the same period in 2019.
The impact of the neo-coronary pneumonia epidemic on global supply chains continues, with high international freight rates, container shortages and terminal congestion still unabated, and labor shortages exacerbating the dilemma. The outbreak of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic in 2020, due to the obstruction of international freight, soaring transportation costs, international trade in goods greatly hindered, triggering a supply chain crisis in many countries (regions), since 2021, the new coronary pneumonia virus variant strain raging, so that the supply chain has not yet fully recovered.
Statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers show that in the first seven months of 2021, China's cumulative automobile exports reached 1.002 million, an increase of 1.2 times year-on-year, but the month-on-month growth was only 9.8 percent, showing a shrinking trend. Moreover, commercial vehicle exports fell 11.6 percent month-on-month, of which new energy commercial vehicle exports fell 57.8 percent month-on-month. It is said that the main reason for the decline in automobile exports is the poor shipping channels.
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At present, 4000 a variety of models of automobile brake discs, brake drums with an annual output of 10 million pieces. Products are mainly exported to Europe, North America, South America, Australia and other countries and regions. At present to SAIC, JAC, BYD, Jinlong, Yutong and other domestic models to provide supporting.
At present, 4000 a variety of models of automobile brake discs. Products are mainly exported to Europe, North America, South America, Australia and other countries and regions. At present to SAIC, JAC, BYD, Jinlong, Yutong and other domestic models to provide supporting.
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