August 7 Trade Risk Alert
Release time:
2020-08-07 17:05
Source:
International air transport agencies estimate that the outbreak will cost the global aviation industry more than $400 billion.The International Air Transport Association (IATA) recently surveyed 300 airlines, 45% of which said they had taken layoffs due to the impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, 55% of which expect layoffs to be taken in the coming year, and 57% of which expect revenue to fall and ticket prices to fall in the coming year, according to Agence France-Presse. The International Air Transport Association expects the global aviation industry to lose $419 billion billion due to the epidemic, with air traffic down 63% year-on-year in 2020 and air transport returning to pre-epidemic levels in 2024, with Asia-Pacific and Europe first returning to 2019 levels, followed by North America and Latin America. (Ministry of Commerce website)
Canada's GDP is likely to fall 12% in the second quarter of this year.Statistics Canada data show that real GDP in May increased by 4.5, much higher than the 3% previously expected by the Bureau of Statistics, marking a rebound in economic activity after two months of sharp decline. Canada's Bureau of Statistics predicts that real GDP may grow by 5% month-on-month in June as the economy gradually restarts. Nonetheless, the Canadian Bureau of Statistics predicts that the economy will remain well below pre-epidemic levels at the end of the second quarter, with GDP falling about 12 percent month-on-month in the second quarter, the biggest decline on record. (Ministry of Commerce website)
The United States lifted the highest level of travel security warning but its citizens face multinational travel restrictions.According to CCTV, on August 6, local time, the US State Department announced the cancellation of the highest-level travel safety warning of "avoiding all international travel" that has been maintained for more than four months, but US citizens still face travel restrictions in many countries around the world. According to CNN, although the U.S. State Department lifted this travel safety warning, U.S. citizens still face travel restrictions in many countries around the world due to the increasing number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in the United States. The European Union continues to restrict the entry of American tourists, and the United Kingdom still requires passengers from the United States to enter the country for 14 days. The ban on non-essential travel between the United States and neighboring Canada and Mexico will also remain in place until late August. (CCTV Network)
Trump ordered to "buy American medicine". U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order on the 6th, requiring the federal government to purchase specific essential drugs made in the United States in order to reduce its dependence on foreign supply chains. The list of essential medicines in question has not yet been drawn up. (Xinhua News Agency)
Canada against the United States.Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland announced on the evening of the 6th local time that as a countermeasure to the U.S. imposing tariffs on Canadian aluminum, Canada will impose tariffs on imported U.S. goods. The total amount will be equal to that of the United States. Earlier in the day, U.S. President Trump announced a 10% tariff on Canadian aluminum exports to the United States at the Whirlpool plant in Ohio on the grounds of national security. The increase will begin on August 16. (CCTV Network)
Brazil's GDP fell 11.2 percent in the second quarter from the first.The Brazilian Economic Activity Index (IAE) released by the Vargas Foundation showed that Brazil's GDP fell 11.2 percent in the second quarter compared with the first quarter, and the sharp decline in the economy in April was the main reason for the decline in GDP in the second quarter, the Economic Value newspaper reported. In addition, the Pakistani economy grew 0.7 percent in June compared with May. (Ministry of Commerce website)
Germany's single-day new cases broke for the first time in three months.xinhua news agency, frankfurt, August 6, german disease control agency robert ·Koch Institute6According to the new crown outbreak data released on May 6, the number of new confirmed cases in a single day as of 0:00 local time was 1045, the first time since May 7. (People's Network)
The Romanian car market fell sharply in the first seven months.Luo's Financial Daily reported on August 4 that data released by the Luo driver's license and vehicle Registration Bureau showed that compared with July 2019, the number of new cars registered in July this year decreased by 27.8 to 12950, the second best month after January. The number of new car registrations in the first seven months was 62566, down 34.2 per cent year-on-year. (Ministry of Commerce website)
Russian steel giant: demand for Russian steel will shrink sharply in 2020.Russian steel giant Evraz Group (Evraz) expects demand for Russian steel to shrink sharply in 2020. The group will keep its dividend policy unchanged and has no plans to cut capital spending further during the year. Evraz Group said it will repay $1 billion billion of debt in the first quarter of 2020; it expects the net debt to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) ratio to be less than 2 by the end of 2020. (Source: SMM)
Indonesia's economy showed negative growth for the first time in more than 20 years, officials said the third quarter may improve.Indonesia's gross domestic product fell 5.32 percent in the second quarter of this year compared to the same period last year, hit by the new coronary pneumonia epidemic. This is the first time since 1999 that the country's economy has experienced negative quarterly growth. (China News Network)
The RBA expected the economy to contract by 6% in the fourth quarter.In its quarterly monetary policy statement, the RBA predicted that GDP would decline by 6% in the fourth quarter and grow by 5% next year. Unemployment is expected to climb to 10% by the end of the year, while inflation is expected to fall below the target of 2% to 3% until the end of 2022. The central bank also warned that Victoria's comprehensive lockdown restrictions could affect economic growth by at least two percentage points in the third quarter. (Economic China Station)
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The company was founded in 1997, currently 4000 a variety of models of automobile brake discs. Products are mainly exported to Europe, North America, South America, Australia and other countries and regions. At present to SAIC, JAC, BYD, Jinlong, Yutong and other domestic models to provide supporting. The company's process equipment strength, Japan's new east automatic casting line 6, commercial vehicle brake disc automatic casting line 2. There are 56 processing lines -6 full-automatic one-word processing lines and 30 robot processing lines. Packaging cleaning line 5, spraying line 3.
Since the beginning of this year, the price of raw materials has risen sharply, sea freight has soared, and the difficulty of finding a box of shipping space has seriously plagued manufacturing companies. The current power curtailment has made companies even worse. Take our company as an example. Since the power limit in early September, the company's production capacity has dropped by about 50% on average every day. Exports have decreased by 0.02 billion yuan. The performance rate of orders in hand is about 50%. New orders were reduced by 10%. These data are the impact of the current power rationing on enterprises. If the power rationing situation is not alleviated, the impact on enterprises in the fourth quarter will be more serious.
Recently, Yunnan, Jiangsu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Guangxi, Guangdong, Sichuan, Henan, Chongqing, Inner Mongolia, Henan and other places have begun to carry out energy control measures to limit energy consumption.
The total power generation in 021 is not low. In the first half of the year, China's total power generation was 3871.7 billion kWh, twice that of the United States. At the same time, China's foreign trade has grown extremely fast this year. According to data recently released by the General Administration of Customs, in August, the total value of my country's foreign trade imports and exports was 3.43 trillion billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9 percent, achieving positive year-on-year growth for 15 consecutive months, further showing a steady and solid trend. In the first eight months, the total value of China's foreign trade imports and exports was 24.78 trillion billion yuan, up 23.7 percent year-on-year and 22.8 percent over the same period in 2019.
The impact of the neo-coronary pneumonia epidemic on global supply chains continues, with high international freight rates, container shortages and terminal congestion still unabated, and labor shortages exacerbating the dilemma. The outbreak of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic in 2020, due to the obstruction of international freight, soaring transportation costs, international trade in goods greatly hindered, triggering a supply chain crisis in many countries (regions), since 2021, the new coronary pneumonia virus variant strain raging, so that the supply chain has not yet fully recovered.
Statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers show that in the first seven months of 2021, China's cumulative automobile exports reached 1.002 million, an increase of 1.2 times year-on-year, but the month-on-month growth was only 9.8 percent, showing a shrinking trend. Moreover, commercial vehicle exports fell 11.6 percent month-on-month, of which new energy commercial vehicle exports fell 57.8 percent month-on-month. It is said that the main reason for the decline in automobile exports is the poor shipping channels.
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At present, 4000 a variety of models of automobile brake discs, brake drums with an annual output of 10 million pieces. Products are mainly exported to Europe, North America, South America, Australia and other countries and regions. At present to SAIC, JAC, BYD, Jinlong, Yutong and other domestic models to provide supporting.
At present, 4000 a variety of models of automobile brake discs. Products are mainly exported to Europe, North America, South America, Australia and other countries and regions. At present to SAIC, JAC, BYD, Jinlong, Yutong and other domestic models to provide supporting.
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