June 29 Trade Risk Alert
Release time:
2020-06-29 17:27
Source:
According to the latest WTO report, global trade may bottom out in the second quarter of this year.According to WTO statistics, the volume of merchandise trade in the first quarter of this year fell by 3% year-on-year. Preliminary estimates of global trade in the second quarter of this year show that the epidemic and its related blockade measures have affected a large portion of the world's population, and global merchandise trade will fall by about 18.5 per cent, a record decline. (Economic Daily)
The International Monetary Fund says the epidemic has hit the global economy hard.On June 24, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released an update to the World Economic Outlook report, predicting that the global economy will decline by 4.9 this year, facing the worst recession since the Great Depression in the 1930 s. The report predicts that the economies of developed economies will shrink by 8% this year, and emerging market and developing economies will shrink by 3%. Among them, the U.S. economy will shrink by 8%, the euro zone economy will shrink by 10.2, and the Japanese economy will shrink by 5.8, both lower than the April forecast. At the same time, Brazil's economy is expected to decline by 9.1, and India's economy will shrink by 4.5. (International Business)
Sweden is listed as one of the 11 countries at high risk of a new crown outbreak.Radio Sweden reported on June 28 that WHO has listed Sweden as one of the 11 countries at high risk of the new crown outbreak, citing the increase in the spread of infection in the country. (Ministry of Commerce website)
Italy's 1/3 metal processing industry is preparing to lay off workers.ANSA's website reported on June 25 that a survey by the Italian Association of Metal-processing Industries showed that the industry will continue to decline in the second quarter under the impact of the new coronavirus, with 1/3 of companies (34%) believing it is necessary to lay off workers within the next six months. 41% of companies are worried about losing sales share in the domestic market, while 47% are worried about foreign market share. (Ministry of Commerce website)
The International Monetary Fund predicts that the Russian economy will decline by 6.6 percent in 2020.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently lowered its previous April forecast for the Russian economy in 2020 by 1.1 percentage points in its July World Economic Outlook report, and raised its forecast for the Russian economy in 2021 by 0.6 percentage points, Itar-Tass reported on June 24. The IMF expects Russian GDP to fall by 6.6 percent in 2020 and grow by 4.1 percent in 2021. (Ministry of Commerce website)
Australian residents lost more than $0.4 billion due to fraud in 2019.2019 has been a bad year for Australian residents, with the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) reporting that Australians lost more than A $0.634 billion ($0.4352 billion) to scams during the year. According to the agency, the amount lost to scams in 2019 was up 34% from the $0.489 billion reported in the previous year. (CICC)
The Lao government has lowered its GDP growth target for 2020.According to the Vientiane Times on June 25, Lao Prime Minister Thongloun Sisouli proposed at the ninth session of the eighth National Assembly, which opened on June 24, that Laos intends to lower its 2020 GDP growth target from 6.5 percent to 3.3-3.6 percent due to the new coronary pneumonia. At the same time, it is proposed to lower the fiscal revenue target for 2020 from 28997 billion Kip to 22725 billion Kip, lower the fiscal expenditure target from 35693 billion Kip to 33043 billion Kip, and increase the fiscal deficit from 3.77 per cent to 5.87 per cent. (Ministry of Commerce website)
More than 90000 Filipinos sacked in first half.According to a report by the Philippine "Business Mirror" (Business Mirror) on June 24, data from the Philippine Ministry of Labor showed that from the beginning of this year to June 21, the number of employees laid off by Philippine enterprises nationwide reached 90215, which has exceeded 2018 and 2019. The number of layoffs for the whole year (68587 and 88947 respectively). Among them, business layoffs led to 82615 permanent unemployment (36086 in a single month in June), and business closures led to 7600 permanent unemployment. In addition, the labor force affected by flexible working systems and temporary business closures in the Philippines reached 2 million in May, and increased to 2.8 million in June, a significant increase from 10756 on March 16. (Ministry of Commerce website)
Japan, Australia LNG trade lower.Recently, a survey report released by the energy consulting agency EnergyQuest showed that in May this year, Japan's imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Australia fell by 7.7 year-on-year, falling to an 11-year low. (China Chemical News)
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The company was founded in 1997, currently 4000 a variety of models of automobile brake discs. Products are mainly exported to Europe, North America, South America, Australia and other countries and regions. At present to SAIC, JAC, BYD, Jinlong, Yutong and other domestic models to provide supporting. The company's process equipment strength, Japan's new east automatic casting line 6, commercial vehicle brake disc automatic casting line 2. There are 56 processing lines -6 full-automatic one-word processing lines and 30 robot processing lines. Packaging cleaning line 5, spraying line 3.
Since the beginning of this year, the price of raw materials has risen sharply, sea freight has soared, and the difficulty of finding a box of shipping space has seriously plagued manufacturing companies. The current power curtailment has made companies even worse. Take our company as an example. Since the power limit in early September, the company's production capacity has dropped by about 50% on average every day. Exports have decreased by 0.02 billion yuan. The performance rate of orders in hand is about 50%. New orders were reduced by 10%. These data are the impact of the current power rationing on enterprises. If the power rationing situation is not alleviated, the impact on enterprises in the fourth quarter will be more serious.
Recently, Yunnan, Jiangsu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Guangxi, Guangdong, Sichuan, Henan, Chongqing, Inner Mongolia, Henan and other places have begun to carry out energy control measures to limit energy consumption.
The total power generation in 021 is not low. In the first half of the year, China's total power generation was 3871.7 billion kWh, twice that of the United States. At the same time, China's foreign trade has grown extremely fast this year. According to data recently released by the General Administration of Customs, in August, the total value of my country's foreign trade imports and exports was 3.43 trillion billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9 percent, achieving positive year-on-year growth for 15 consecutive months, further showing a steady and solid trend. In the first eight months, the total value of China's foreign trade imports and exports was 24.78 trillion billion yuan, up 23.7 percent year-on-year and 22.8 percent over the same period in 2019.
The impact of the neo-coronary pneumonia epidemic on global supply chains continues, with high international freight rates, container shortages and terminal congestion still unabated, and labor shortages exacerbating the dilemma. The outbreak of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic in 2020, due to the obstruction of international freight, soaring transportation costs, international trade in goods greatly hindered, triggering a supply chain crisis in many countries (regions), since 2021, the new coronary pneumonia virus variant strain raging, so that the supply chain has not yet fully recovered.
Statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers show that in the first seven months of 2021, China's cumulative automobile exports reached 1.002 million, an increase of 1.2 times year-on-year, but the month-on-month growth was only 9.8 percent, showing a shrinking trend. Moreover, commercial vehicle exports fell 11.6 percent month-on-month, of which new energy commercial vehicle exports fell 57.8 percent month-on-month. It is said that the main reason for the decline in automobile exports is the poor shipping channels.
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At present, 4000 a variety of models of automobile brake discs, brake drums with an annual output of 10 million pieces. Products are mainly exported to Europe, North America, South America, Australia and other countries and regions. At present to SAIC, JAC, BYD, Jinlong, Yutong and other domestic models to provide supporting.
At present, 4000 a variety of models of automobile brake discs. Products are mainly exported to Europe, North America, South America, Australia and other countries and regions. At present to SAIC, JAC, BYD, Jinlong, Yutong and other domestic models to provide supporting.
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