May 20 Trade Risk Alert
Release time:
2020-05-20 15:41
Source:
U.S. GDP fell by 38% in the second quarter, and the unemployment rate will remain high until next year.On May 19, the Congressional Budget Office released forecasts that U.S. GDP will fall at an annualized rate of 38 percent in the second quarter, that the number of unemployed will increase by 26 million from the end of 2019, and that the unemployment rate will remain high for some time and is expected to fall to 8.6 percent by the end of 2021. (Sohu News)
Air Canada to cut at least 20000 jobs.On May 15, Air Canada announced that the new crown epidemic had forced it to ground 95 per cent of its scheduled flights and that it was expected that traffic would be difficult to recover in the short term, so it had decided to lay off 50 to 60 per cent of its staff. Air Canada currently has about 38000 employees, and the layoff decision will take effect on June 7. (World Wide Web).
The new crown outbreak caused Canada's April home sales to be the lowest in 40 years.The latest statistics from the Canadian Real Estate Association show that Canadian home sales plunged 56% in April compared to March due to the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, the worst April home sales figures for the Canadian real estate market since 1984. (Netease News)
The outbreak has led to a shortage of alcoholic beverages in Mexico.On May 18, according to the "Central News Agency" reported that during the new crown epidemic, Mexico's factories producing spirits and beer closed, mainstream alcoholic beverages shortage, beer prices in some areas even doubled. Mexican authorities say at least 121 Mexicans have died after drinking alcohol adulterated with other substances. (China News Network)
Tunisia's fruit exports fall in first five months of 2020: report:The News reported on May 10 that as of May 6, 1166 tons of fruit had been highlighted so far this year, down 18.6 percent from the same period last year, but it still generated 9.4 million revenue, up 5.24 percent from the same period last year. (Ministry of Commerce website)
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development predicts that the Russian economy will decline by 4.5 in 2020:RIA Novosti news on May 13, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development recently released a regional economic outlook report, predicting that the Russian economy will shrink by 4.5 percent in 2020 due to falling oil prices and the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, and is expected to usher in a 4 percent recovery growth in 2021. (Ministry of Commerce website)
Savings deposits of Russian residents' banks fell sharply:Russia's "Izvestia" reported on May 15 that according to the annual report of the Russian Central Bank, the proportion of savings deposits and cash in Russian residents' banks in 2018 was 54% and 46%, respectively. In 2019, Russian residents' income increased by 6.2 year-on-year to nearly 62 trillion rubles, but due to consumer spending and rigid demand spending, the increase in household savings deposits fell from 2.5 trillion rubles to 2.1 trillion rubles in 2019, a decrease of nearly 14%. Since 2020, due to the neo-coronavirus pandemic, some Russians have withdrawn their deposits, fearing the loss of their bank deposits. In addition, during the period of self-isolation, the Russian people bought large quantities of stored food and were forced to consume their savings when their real income stagnated. Experts believe that the increase in household savings deposits this year will continue to show a downward trend, or will not exceed 1.3-1.5 trillion rubles. According to the Central Bank of Russia, the decline in household savings deposits is related to the stagnation of real disposable income of residents. The increase in consumer spending depends mainly on savings, and this year the outflow of savings from residential banks has more than doubled year-on-year. (Ministry of Commerce website)
The Bank of England stepped up its assessment of negative interest rate policy:The Bank of England, the central bank of the United Kingdom, recently released a signal to change its negative attitude towards negative interest rates, saying that it does not rule out the possibility of implementing a negative interest rate policy. (People's Daily)
palestine announces cessation of all agreements reached with the united states and israe:Xinhua News Agency, Ramallah, May 19 (Reporter Xiong Sihao) Palestinian President Abbas announced late on the night of the 19th that Palestine would stop fulfilling all agreements reached with the United States and Israel. (Xinhua News Agency)
In the previous April, Mongolia's air transport revenue decreased by 52.4 year-on-year:According to Mongolia's "www.ikon.mn" network, in the first April, Mongolia's air transport revenue was 58.6 billion (about 0.148 billion yuan), down 52.4 percent from the same period last year. Among them, domestic passenger traffic fell 15.8 percent year-on-year and international passenger traffic fell 51.5 percent year-on-year. (Ministry of Commerce website)
Experts warn of bubble risk in Iran stock market: report:The United States "startribune" reported on May 17, despite the face of United States sanctions, high domestic unemployment, high inflation, low oil prices and the new crown epidemic hit, but Iranian investors seem to be the stock market as a "safe haven", since last year, the Tehran Stock Exchange index rose 225 percent, the general public enthusiastically invested, eager to open an account to trade people lined up. President Rouhani also pointed to the stock market as a rare bright spot in the Iranian economy. The analysis believes that the main reasons for the upsurge in the Iranian stock market include: First, the rial has depreciated sharply, and the rate of return on other investments is too low, and the stock market's daily return of 5% is quite attractive, which is much higher than bank savings, attracting a large number of ordinary people; Second, under the pressure of US sanctions, the Rouhani government is eager to privatize state-owned enterprises and raise funds by selling assets on exchanges. (Ministry of Commerce website)
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The company was founded in 1997, currently 4000 a variety of models of automobile brake discs. Products are mainly exported to Europe, North America, South America, Australia and other countries and regions. At present to SAIC, JAC, BYD, Jinlong, Yutong and other domestic models to provide supporting. The company's process equipment strength, Japan's new east automatic casting line 6, commercial vehicle brake disc automatic casting line 2. There are 56 processing lines -6 full-automatic one-word processing lines and 30 robot processing lines. Packaging cleaning line 5, spraying line 3.
Since the beginning of this year, the price of raw materials has risen sharply, sea freight has soared, and the difficulty of finding a box of shipping space has seriously plagued manufacturing companies. The current power curtailment has made companies even worse. Take our company as an example. Since the power limit in early September, the company's production capacity has dropped by about 50% on average every day. Exports have decreased by 0.02 billion yuan. The performance rate of orders in hand is about 50%. New orders were reduced by 10%. These data are the impact of the current power rationing on enterprises. If the power rationing situation is not alleviated, the impact on enterprises in the fourth quarter will be more serious.
Recently, Yunnan, Jiangsu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Guangxi, Guangdong, Sichuan, Henan, Chongqing, Inner Mongolia, Henan and other places have begun to carry out energy control measures to limit energy consumption.
The total power generation in 021 is not low. In the first half of the year, China's total power generation was 3871.7 billion kWh, twice that of the United States. At the same time, China's foreign trade has grown extremely fast this year. According to data recently released by the General Administration of Customs, in August, the total value of my country's foreign trade imports and exports was 3.43 trillion billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9 percent, achieving positive year-on-year growth for 15 consecutive months, further showing a steady and solid trend. In the first eight months, the total value of China's foreign trade imports and exports was 24.78 trillion billion yuan, up 23.7 percent year-on-year and 22.8 percent over the same period in 2019.
The impact of the neo-coronary pneumonia epidemic on global supply chains continues, with high international freight rates, container shortages and terminal congestion still unabated, and labor shortages exacerbating the dilemma. The outbreak of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic in 2020, due to the obstruction of international freight, soaring transportation costs, international trade in goods greatly hindered, triggering a supply chain crisis in many countries (regions), since 2021, the new coronary pneumonia virus variant strain raging, so that the supply chain has not yet fully recovered.
Statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers show that in the first seven months of 2021, China's cumulative automobile exports reached 1.002 million, an increase of 1.2 times year-on-year, but the month-on-month growth was only 9.8 percent, showing a shrinking trend. Moreover, commercial vehicle exports fell 11.6 percent month-on-month, of which new energy commercial vehicle exports fell 57.8 percent month-on-month. It is said that the main reason for the decline in automobile exports is the poor shipping channels.
Product recommend
At present, 4000 a variety of models of automobile brake discs, brake drums with an annual output of 10 million pieces. Products are mainly exported to Europe, North America, South America, Australia and other countries and regions. At present to SAIC, JAC, BYD, Jinlong, Yutong and other domestic models to provide supporting.
At present, 4000 a variety of models of automobile brake discs. Products are mainly exported to Europe, North America, South America, Australia and other countries and regions. At present to SAIC, JAC, BYD, Jinlong, Yutong and other domestic models to provide supporting.
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