Trade Risk Alert
Release time:
2021-06-01 08:18
Source:
Since the start of the current round of RMB appreciation in June last year, domestic enterprises have performed more mature and rational, insisting on selling high and buying low and increasing risk hedging. In the first four months of this year, the gap of domestic foreign exchange supply exceeding demand fell month by month. By April, although the trade surplus was still as high as $42.9 billion, the bank's immediate forward (including options) foreign exchange settlement surplus fell to $2 billion, down 98% from its peak in December last year and even lower than the surplus of $8.6 billion in the same period last year.
It's just that the recent surge in the yuan has made domestic companies no longer calm. From May 25 to 27, in the process of RMB entering the customs, the daily average volume of spot inquiry in the inter-bank market reached 50.9 billion US dollars, 16% higher than the peak in December last year. From 26 to 28, the central parity of the RMB rose by 425 basis points, of which the closing price was stronger than the central parity of the day, contributing 323 basis points, accounting for 76%.
This wave of sharp rise in the yuan may have forced some panic foreign exchange selling by companies. At the end of April this year, the balance of foreign exchange deposits of financial institutions exceeded $1 trillion, of which domestic foreign exchange deposits of domestic enterprises were $483.8 billion, an increase of $114.3 billion from the end of 2019; the domestic foreign exchange loan-to-deposit ratio was 53.6 percent, the lowest since the beginning of 2015. This suggests that domestic companies already hold more dollar long positions and that net foreign exchange liabilities are low.
Recently, the central parity and transaction price of the RMB exchange rate have been continuously raised high, which may lead to self-reinforcement and self-realization of appreciation expectations. From May 25 to 28, the RMB exchange rate turned into a sustained appreciation expectation and jumped. Enhancing the credibility of a managed floating exchange rate policy and avoiding unilateral expectations is key to delaying this pro-cyclical adjustment.
On May 27, the central bank once again spoke out through the national foreign exchange market self-discipline mechanism working conference, pointing out that there are many factors affecting the exchange rate in the future, and no one can accurately predict the short-term or medium-and long-term exchange rate trend, emphasizing that two-way exchange rate fluctuations are the norm. Enterprises and financial institutions should avoid the "foreign exchange speculation" behavior of betting on the unilateral rise and depreciation of the RMB. The next day, at the end of the-share market, the land stock exchange backhand short, the day net sold 0.5 billion yuan; although the domestic and foreign RMB exchange rate trading price reached a new high, but the inter-bank market spot inquiry trading volume of $36.6 billion, compared with the previous three days The average daily trading volume decreased by 28%.
Expect the market to return to rationality after a brief period of agitation. RMB stocks and foreign exchange markets are our "home". We can ignore all kinds of market noise, stick to value investing, stick to risk neutrality, and do our own thing. If possible, we should do "hitchhiking" instead of "carrying sedan chairs. (Sina Finance)
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The company was founded in 1997, currently 4000 a variety of models of automobile brake discs. Products are mainly exported to Europe, North America, South America, Australia and other countries and regions. At present to SAIC, JAC, BYD, Jinlong, Yutong and other domestic models to provide supporting. The company's process equipment strength, Japan's new east automatic casting line 6, commercial vehicle brake disc automatic casting line 2. There are 56 processing lines -6 full-automatic one-word processing lines and 30 robot processing lines. Packaging cleaning line 5, spraying line 3.
Since the beginning of this year, the price of raw materials has risen sharply, sea freight has soared, and the difficulty of finding a box of shipping space has seriously plagued manufacturing companies. The current power curtailment has made companies even worse. Take our company as an example. Since the power limit in early September, the company's production capacity has dropped by about 50% on average every day. Exports have decreased by 0.02 billion yuan. The performance rate of orders in hand is about 50%. New orders were reduced by 10%. These data are the impact of the current power rationing on enterprises. If the power rationing situation is not alleviated, the impact on enterprises in the fourth quarter will be more serious.
Recently, Yunnan, Jiangsu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Guangxi, Guangdong, Sichuan, Henan, Chongqing, Inner Mongolia, Henan and other places have begun to carry out energy control measures to limit energy consumption.
The total power generation in 021 is not low. In the first half of the year, China's total power generation was 3871.7 billion kWh, twice that of the United States. At the same time, China's foreign trade has grown extremely fast this year. According to data recently released by the General Administration of Customs, in August, the total value of my country's foreign trade imports and exports was 3.43 trillion billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9 percent, achieving positive year-on-year growth for 15 consecutive months, further showing a steady and solid trend. In the first eight months, the total value of China's foreign trade imports and exports was 24.78 trillion billion yuan, up 23.7 percent year-on-year and 22.8 percent over the same period in 2019.
The impact of the neo-coronary pneumonia epidemic on global supply chains continues, with high international freight rates, container shortages and terminal congestion still unabated, and labor shortages exacerbating the dilemma. The outbreak of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic in 2020, due to the obstruction of international freight, soaring transportation costs, international trade in goods greatly hindered, triggering a supply chain crisis in many countries (regions), since 2021, the new coronary pneumonia virus variant strain raging, so that the supply chain has not yet fully recovered.
Statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers show that in the first seven months of 2021, China's cumulative automobile exports reached 1.002 million, an increase of 1.2 times year-on-year, but the month-on-month growth was only 9.8 percent, showing a shrinking trend. Moreover, commercial vehicle exports fell 11.6 percent month-on-month, of which new energy commercial vehicle exports fell 57.8 percent month-on-month. It is said that the main reason for the decline in automobile exports is the poor shipping channels.
Product recommend
At present, 4000 a variety of models of automobile brake discs, brake drums with an annual output of 10 million pieces. Products are mainly exported to Europe, North America, South America, Australia and other countries and regions. At present to SAIC, JAC, BYD, Jinlong, Yutong and other domestic models to provide supporting.
At present, 4000 a variety of models of automobile brake discs. Products are mainly exported to Europe, North America, South America, Australia and other countries and regions. At present to SAIC, JAC, BYD, Jinlong, Yutong and other domestic models to provide supporting.
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