Trade Risk Alert
Release time:
2021-03-31 09:31
Source:
Trade risk warning: the development of parts and components is closely related to the vehicle market.
1. Parts enterprises should walk in front of the vehicle
From the perspective of the policy system, the domestic automobile industry policy is mainly formulated around the whole vehicle, and the parts and components enterprises only play a "supporting role"; from the perspective of export, the self-owned brand automobile wheels, glass and rubber tires occupy a place in the international market, while the development of core components with high added value and high profit margin lags behind. As a basic industry, auto parts involve a wide range and a long industrial chain. Without the endogenous drive and coordinated development of the industry, it is difficult to make breakthroughs in core technologies. It is worth reflecting that in the past, OEMs had a one-sided understanding of simply pursuing market dividends, and only maintained a simple relationship between supply and demand with upstream suppliers, and did not play a leading role in the front-end industrial chain.
From the perspective of the layout of the global parts industry, with major OEMs as the core and radiating the surrounding areas, three main industrial chain clusters have been formed around the world: the North American industrial chain cluster with the United States as the core and maintained by the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement; Germany and France As the core, the European industrial chain cluster radiating Central and Eastern Europe; the Asian industrial chain cluster with China, Japan and South Korea as the core. In order to win the differentiation advantage in the international market, independent brand automobile enterprises need to be good at making use of the cluster effect of the industrial chain, pay attention to the synergy of the upstream supply chain, increase the front-end design, research and development and integration, and encourage the powerful independent parts enterprises to go out to sea together, even before the whole vehicle.
2. Independent head suppliers usher in a period of development opportunities.
The short-and long-term impact of the outbreak on the global supply of auto parts will benefit domestic head companies with a global capacity layout. In the short term, the epidemic has repeatedly dragged down the production of overseas suppliers, while domestic enterprises have taken the lead in resuming production, and some orders that cannot be supplied in time may be forced to switch suppliers, providing a window for domestic parts enterprises to expand their overseas business. In the long run, in order to reduce the risk of overseas supply cut-off, more host plants will be independent suppliers into the supporting system, domestic core components import substitution process is expected to accelerate. The automotive industry has the dual attributes of cycle and growth, in the context of limited market growth, the industry structural opportunities can be expected.
3. "New four" will reshape the pattern of the automotive industry chain
At present, four macro factors such as policy orientation, economic foundation, social motivation, and technology drive have accelerated the gestation and promotion of the "new four industrializations" of the automotive industry chain-power diversification, networking, intelligence and sharing. According to different mobile travel needs, the main engine factory customizes the production of suitable models. Platform production will quickly iterate on vehicle appearance and interior decoration. Flexible production helps to maximize the efficiency of the production line. The maturity of electrified technology, the integration of 5G industry and the gradual realization of highly intelligent shared driving scenarios will deeply reshape the pattern of the future automotive industry chain. The three-electric system (battery, motor and electric control) driven by the rise of electrification will replace the traditional internal combustion engine and become the absolute core. The main carriers of intelligence-automotive chips, ADAS and AI matching will become new corner points. As an important component of networking, the four driving factors of C- V2X, high-precision maps, automatic driving technology and policy coordination are indispensable. (China Auto News Network)
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The company was founded in 1997, currently 4000 a variety of models of automobile brake discs. Products are mainly exported to Europe, North America, South America, Australia and other countries and regions. At present to SAIC, JAC, BYD, Jinlong, Yutong and other domestic models to provide supporting. The company's process equipment strength, Japan's new east automatic casting line 6, commercial vehicle brake disc automatic casting line 2. There are 56 processing lines -6 full-automatic one-word processing lines and 30 robot processing lines. Packaging cleaning line 5, spraying line 3.
Since the beginning of this year, the price of raw materials has risen sharply, sea freight has soared, and the difficulty of finding a box of shipping space has seriously plagued manufacturing companies. The current power curtailment has made companies even worse. Take our company as an example. Since the power limit in early September, the company's production capacity has dropped by about 50% on average every day. Exports have decreased by 0.02 billion yuan. The performance rate of orders in hand is about 50%. New orders were reduced by 10%. These data are the impact of the current power rationing on enterprises. If the power rationing situation is not alleviated, the impact on enterprises in the fourth quarter will be more serious.
Recently, Yunnan, Jiangsu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Guangxi, Guangdong, Sichuan, Henan, Chongqing, Inner Mongolia, Henan and other places have begun to carry out energy control measures to limit energy consumption.
The total power generation in 021 is not low. In the first half of the year, China's total power generation was 3871.7 billion kWh, twice that of the United States. At the same time, China's foreign trade has grown extremely fast this year. According to data recently released by the General Administration of Customs, in August, the total value of my country's foreign trade imports and exports was 3.43 trillion billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9 percent, achieving positive year-on-year growth for 15 consecutive months, further showing a steady and solid trend. In the first eight months, the total value of China's foreign trade imports and exports was 24.78 trillion billion yuan, up 23.7 percent year-on-year and 22.8 percent over the same period in 2019.
The impact of the neo-coronary pneumonia epidemic on global supply chains continues, with high international freight rates, container shortages and terminal congestion still unabated, and labor shortages exacerbating the dilemma. The outbreak of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic in 2020, due to the obstruction of international freight, soaring transportation costs, international trade in goods greatly hindered, triggering a supply chain crisis in many countries (regions), since 2021, the new coronary pneumonia virus variant strain raging, so that the supply chain has not yet fully recovered.
Statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers show that in the first seven months of 2021, China's cumulative automobile exports reached 1.002 million, an increase of 1.2 times year-on-year, but the month-on-month growth was only 9.8 percent, showing a shrinking trend. Moreover, commercial vehicle exports fell 11.6 percent month-on-month, of which new energy commercial vehicle exports fell 57.8 percent month-on-month. It is said that the main reason for the decline in automobile exports is the poor shipping channels.
Product recommend
At present, 4000 a variety of models of automobile brake discs, brake drums with an annual output of 10 million pieces. Products are mainly exported to Europe, North America, South America, Australia and other countries and regions. At present to SAIC, JAC, BYD, Jinlong, Yutong and other domestic models to provide supporting.
At present, 4000 a variety of models of automobile brake discs. Products are mainly exported to Europe, North America, South America, Australia and other countries and regions. At present to SAIC, JAC, BYD, Jinlong, Yutong and other domestic models to provide supporting.
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