Trade Risk Alert
Release time:
2021-03-15 09:24
Source:
In January-February 2021, China's economic performance continued its steady recovery since the second quarter of last year. After the Spring Festival, the rate of resumption of investment projects and construction enterprises were higher than in previous years, and the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) in February was above the boom and bust line for 12 consecutive months, indicating that the economy maintained an expansion trend. In addition, the consumer market is generally active, and in terms of demand indicators, retail food and beverage consumption during the Spring Festival this year increased by 4.9 compared to the 2019 Spring Festival, indicating a steady recovery in consumer demand. In this context, the automobile industry continued a good development trend.
From the market situation, due to the low base in February 2020, the production and sales of various models showed a significant growth in the month. From the perspective of subdivided models, among commercial vehicles, the production and sales of heavy trucks exceed that of light trucks, and continue to refresh the historical record of the month, continuing a good development trend. Passenger cars still show a decline in production and sales compared to the cumulative historical data for 2019 and 2018, indicating that market consumption continues to be recovering. Finally, it is worth mentioning that this month's new energy production and sales and exports continue to break the historical record of the month, and continue to maintain a large scale in terms of quantity.
Looking forward to the future, my country's economy will continue to recover steadily. This year's government work report proposes that GDP will grow by more than 6%, clarifying the policy orientation of steadily increasing bulk consumption such as automobiles and home appliances. At the same time, the General Office of the Ministry of Commerce issued in February this year. The Notice on Issuing Guidelines for Promoting Automobile Consumption in the Business Sector and Some Local Experiences and Practices will also have a positive effect on automobile consumption. In view of the hot issues in the industry, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is also organizing industry forces to jointly resolve the chip crisis and gradually alleviate the adverse impact of "stuck neck" key technologies on the industry, thus judging that the automobile industry will maintain a steady and good development trend in the future.
However, we should also note that China's economic recovery still faces some risks and challenges, the new coronary pneumonia epidemic is still spreading around the world, the world economic situation is grim and complex, and unstable and uncertain factors are increasing; the foundation for domestic economic recovery is not yet solid, household consumption is still restricted, investment growth is insufficient, small and medium-sized enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households have more difficulties, these factors will also affect the stable recovery of the automobile market to a certain extent. (Industry Information Department of China Automobile Association)
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The company was founded in 1997, currently 4000 a variety of models of automobile brake discs. Products are mainly exported to Europe, North America, South America, Australia and other countries and regions. At present to SAIC, JAC, BYD, Jinlong, Yutong and other domestic models to provide supporting. The company's process equipment strength, Japan's new east automatic casting line 6, commercial vehicle brake disc automatic casting line 2. There are 56 processing lines -6 full-automatic one-word processing lines and 30 robot processing lines. Packaging cleaning line 5, spraying line 3.
Since the beginning of this year, the price of raw materials has risen sharply, sea freight has soared, and the difficulty of finding a box of shipping space has seriously plagued manufacturing companies. The current power curtailment has made companies even worse. Take our company as an example. Since the power limit in early September, the company's production capacity has dropped by about 50% on average every day. Exports have decreased by 0.02 billion yuan. The performance rate of orders in hand is about 50%. New orders were reduced by 10%. These data are the impact of the current power rationing on enterprises. If the power rationing situation is not alleviated, the impact on enterprises in the fourth quarter will be more serious.
Recently, Yunnan, Jiangsu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Guangxi, Guangdong, Sichuan, Henan, Chongqing, Inner Mongolia, Henan and other places have begun to carry out energy control measures to limit energy consumption.
The total power generation in 021 is not low. In the first half of the year, China's total power generation was 3871.7 billion kWh, twice that of the United States. At the same time, China's foreign trade has grown extremely fast this year. According to data recently released by the General Administration of Customs, in August, the total value of my country's foreign trade imports and exports was 3.43 trillion billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9 percent, achieving positive year-on-year growth for 15 consecutive months, further showing a steady and solid trend. In the first eight months, the total value of China's foreign trade imports and exports was 24.78 trillion billion yuan, up 23.7 percent year-on-year and 22.8 percent over the same period in 2019.
The impact of the neo-coronary pneumonia epidemic on global supply chains continues, with high international freight rates, container shortages and terminal congestion still unabated, and labor shortages exacerbating the dilemma. The outbreak of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic in 2020, due to the obstruction of international freight, soaring transportation costs, international trade in goods greatly hindered, triggering a supply chain crisis in many countries (regions), since 2021, the new coronary pneumonia virus variant strain raging, so that the supply chain has not yet fully recovered.
Statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers show that in the first seven months of 2021, China's cumulative automobile exports reached 1.002 million, an increase of 1.2 times year-on-year, but the month-on-month growth was only 9.8 percent, showing a shrinking trend. Moreover, commercial vehicle exports fell 11.6 percent month-on-month, of which new energy commercial vehicle exports fell 57.8 percent month-on-month. It is said that the main reason for the decline in automobile exports is the poor shipping channels.
Product recommend
At present, 4000 a variety of models of automobile brake discs, brake drums with an annual output of 10 million pieces. Products are mainly exported to Europe, North America, South America, Australia and other countries and regions. At present to SAIC, JAC, BYD, Jinlong, Yutong and other domestic models to provide supporting.
At present, 4000 a variety of models of automobile brake discs. Products are mainly exported to Europe, North America, South America, Australia and other countries and regions. At present to SAIC, JAC, BYD, Jinlong, Yutong and other domestic models to provide supporting.
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